The Odds on Market Recovery

This year’s market action has been a perfect advertisement for the Rip van Winkle school of investing: trade little, go to sleep for a year or two, and come back to find that nothing much has changed (FT Column, published May 11th 2009). At the time of writing, both the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 index are up around 1% for the year. Yet what a ride it has been for those condemned to follow it day to day since the beginning of the year – from falling knife to what may be a runaway bull market in the space of little over two months.

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